Ticker Street

Super glad

2010-08-22T12:45:00.000-07:00

I am super glad nobody missed me. There were many querries while this blog was open. Most of them were if I was aping tickerville, tickerguy, tickersense....which was all nonsense. Let me be honest and tell that I didn't know those blogs before I started this. Hence, I started a blog at a new location few months ago and I have to tell you that I was successful.

Ciao!

/ES channel

2010-06-02T10:58:00.000-07:00

/ES is struggling in this descending channel shown in the 60 min chart:

It is the same channel that I have been following for 3 weeks now.

Long recommendations

2010-05-27T19:56:00.000-07:00

Few stocks that I like with stops indicated below, buy on a pull back below today's closing price for swing trade:

KSU - 37.6
NEM - 53.9
LVS - 22.9
NWL - 16.5
NRG - 22.5
TEL - 29.25

Euro at a critical resistance

2010-05-27T04:19:00.000-07:00

Euro already hit a critical resistance of 1.234 vs the US$ and fell back a tad tonight. That resistance is the low from 2008. If that resistance is overcome, then you could see a rally all the way to atleast @1.3. The US future markets and the cash global markets have rallied on the back of this rally from the currencies. The purple lines are the fib lines seperating the 2008 high and the 2008 low.

What if the resistance is not overcome? It will be seen as a failed attempt and will fall back severely, equities to follow.

The /ES futures have rallied 30.5 points overnight and pulled back now to 26+. Will the $SPX open that high? What if we don't? Isn't that why I always suggest you to be stocks which have good volume and trade actively in the extended hours? You can take partial profits and then ride the rest of the profits, should the inevitable not happen. There is nothing wrong with taking profits, especially in these crazy markets.

Yesterday was a wild day with the US markets gapping up but closing @ .5% down. Most of the indicators were down yesterday except the 2 that I am showing below. Well, the trend is still down but the bearish sentiment is at extreme level, hence this change is a fresh breath of air.

Keep in mind, we have long ways to go for the markets to turn bullish. There has been enormous damage done to every single chart in the last 3 weeks with the technicals taken to the garbage dump. It will take long time for them to correct, I wish that consolidation to happen slowly rather than short covering crazy rallies that will eventually cause dumping again. The weekly and monthly charts are looking stupid at the moment and not even a big rally during these 2 days can correct them at this time. Like I said above, it will take a lot of consolidated market ramping for the technicals to correct again.

Before I go to take a nap again, I want to post a chart for you watch today. If the breakout is successful on good volume (2 consecutive up days), then buy the pullback with a stop below the line. Yes, all the other technicals for this ticker are aligned on the right side but the markets should also cooperate.

If there is any commodity that I want to buy, it is the ticker SLEEP. I have been doing well being, in trading, being on the right side most of the time during the last 2 weeks. But both for bulls and bears, these 2 weeks I am sure have been nothing short of hell, in terms of anxiety and rest. I have been busy with work mostly, so you can only imagine how tired I am. I can't wait for the weekend, I am sure I will be sleeping 75% of the hours. Happy Sleep time to you!

/ES channel

2010-05-25T21:34:00.000-07:00

I posted a channel last wednesday, do you remember? short memory, with the market swinging 40 points everyday, eh? I was expecting an upward spike the next day but tragedy struck and we fell straight into hell. I just now checked the /ES and /ES is struggling to creep up again into that channel. Kissed lower trendline twice today and fell back. I was amazed! Anyway, if the the resistance still holds, it doesn't sound good for the bulls.

Tada!

2010-05-25T07:46:00.000-07:00

You might remember my post on GS few days back. Now, this is where we stand. I haven't changed the annotations on the chart a bit from that day. If I were short GS here, I would start taking profits here, if you are trading for the short term. Remember, GS leads the market. Be careful out there, if you are short.

Arcelor Mittal

2010-05-25T03:46:00.000-07:00

Check my 3 previous posts, there were indications of today's collapse.

Before the finger crash, I posted a channel for MT. At the bottom of that channel, I bought and sold as I didn't feel everything was right on the day that Europe announced the 1 T package. MT started tankage right after I sold, so I was good there.

Also, please look at my post on X . X will trade today in the 43s and 44s, which means X will meet my initial targets. Have I made good use of the forecasted chart? I sold short X when it started sliding down below 50$ and bought below 48$ as it was rallying again. One of the problems with crash markets is they have rallies too. With such big whipsaws, you can't keep trading and guessing everytime right. Now, you know why the pros ask you to stay in cash (and not sell short) when there is a crash expected.

Right now, in premarket, MT is trading at 27.32$. I am trying to guess a channel. If the stock bounces from this channel, that is a buy with your stop below the lower trendline break.

Right now, I am short V as noted in my chart yesterday. I plan to cover to buy today and will buy farther puts with the profit. It is safe to keep only small amount on the table in case the trade will still go in the direction after my close.

Squeeze in the making - II

2010-05-24T13:06:00.000-07:00

When I posted the "Squeeze in the....." (check my previous posts) today afternoon using the 60 min chart, there was no such squeeze developing on the 30 min chart. Between now and then, the $SPX on the 30 min. entered the squeze territory. On the 60 min chart, the squeeze did not resolve yet. But, on the 30 mins, here is what happened:

We had few such squeezes in the last one month. I marked all those squeezes up there, please check and make your assessment. Thanks.

Visa takes Life

2010-05-24T11:01:00.000-07:00

Errr...did I call the slogan wrong? Well, that's what the chart shows:

Squeeze in the making

2010-05-24T10:38:00.000-07:00

Alert to short term traders: A BB squeeze is in the making on the 60 min chart. This could resolve to either side.

Fighting the trend

2010-05-23T10:33:00.000-07:00

The market's trend currently is in a downward slope. Why should you be trading against the trend? Are you the trend maker? I obviously don't think so, as most retail investors only are a miniscule part of the stock market. Don't jump into the water before the big fish does. I already posted the IT and LT outlook 2 days back. There is no change in my stance on IT and LT charts. Now, let's try to see what happens in the near term. Just like overbought conditions can prevail for long periods of time, oversold conditions can take longer time to bottom as well. In bull market corrections, oversold conditions reverse quickly but the reversals from bull market don't happen as quickly as you think. In essence, if you are a dip buyer, you are the leader sometimes but you are the laggard in other times. If you are wrong, the market shows no mercy and your account will reflect exactly that. Hence, why trade against the trend?

The indicators in my daily charts haven't given any buy signals yet on friday despite the reversal. You can say the indicators are always late, as the dip buyers are always early to the game. But, how early are you? I am looking at $NYMO and $NAMO. Both hit extreme oversold readings on 05/20 and bounced the next day. I have seen many bloggers saying that the bounce indicates the bounce in the market. Look at the charts below and tell me if $NYMO and $NAMO are the leaders or the laggards. Both the oscillators have formed the bottom always earlier than the market, sometimes by few days and sometimes by few weeks. I used $SPX (ideally I should be using NYSE) and $COMPX against these oscillators for comparison. But, I always set my sight on other indicators to see the turn, when $NYMO and $NAMO. As of now, none of those other indicators show a turn. Ofcourse, not all stocks bottom at the same time. So, if you are lucky, your stock could rally from here even while the market is trying to bottom. That is why I am advocating you to be in cash at this time. Important resistances to watch are 200 dma on $SPX and then, 1125 level. Important supports are the flash crash low, then 1044 and then 1025.

$SPX, Intermediate and Long term

2010-05-20T08:03:00.000-07:00

At the chance of being named Captain Obvious, I must say that things are not looking good. I am not looking at daily charts because they are so bad that they offer me no good clue. The weekly charts have gone bad as well and the monthly charts are turning bearish too. We still have a good chance for the monthly charts to show some hope as we have 7 sessions to go. I cannot put all the thoughts I have or all the charts I see on my blog, hence if you have any questions. I will be happy to discuss, please pose your questions. Thank you!

$SPX weekly chart

$SPX monthly chart

Good Luck to you, if you are a dip buyer. Please adjust your position size and do yourself a favor.

p.s: I have business work tomorrow. I locked up my profits in options, I hope things will go my way. I will be working on this weekend :( , then I will be busy middle of next week. So, please expect fewer posts.

Goldman Sachs 60 min chart

2010-05-19T10:35:00.000-07:00

Ladies and Gentlemen, I don't mind if you don't catch the bottom. I want you to be comfortable and buy the breakout. Wait, wait, wait, have patience and then buy! Good luck!

I covered X at 47.75$. Just @ 4%. There could be a market bounce here or not, but like I said above, you should be comfortable, confident and easy going when you buy or sell.

D - day

2010-05-19T03:58:00.000-07:00

I am seeing positive divergence on many internal indicators, that is good atleast for a bounce to the upper channel. The channel break, in either direction, now should be decisive and form a support or resistance based on the move.

Edited at 1 pm EST: The channel still holds good. Looking for a target of 1135 - 1140 by OPEX.

I come home for lunch everyday and I can't tolerate the CNBC lunch time crew. They are really obnoxious and nauseating. I changed the channel to Food Network and watched "Everyday Italian" by Giada. Yummy!

Goldman Snakes

2010-05-18T14:10:00.000-07:00

Goldman releases a comment that banks earn 20 pct lower EPS on financial regulation, 2 days after they heavily buy XLF puts.

Goldman Snakes again, aha! 2 days earlier:

p.s: Did you hit the X today? ;)

Did the market bottom today?

2010-05-17T20:57:00.000-07:00

Though the 60 min chart of the Qs appears to be inticing the buyers, the daily chart is no where bullish. The SPY and DIA 60 min. charts are set to follow the direction of the Qs. As a precaution, I decided to take a look at the Qs 60 min chart of the previous downslope in Jan/ Feb 2010.

In Jan/ Feb too, we had a similar situation like this (where everyone thought the market bottomed in just one week) but the internals bottomed first then, and the price followed later. Our case now seems to be reverse compared to Jan/ Feb: The price seems to have bottomed before the internals did (not sure yet), because of the flash crash. Hence, I don't believe this Mac crossover is genuine, I suspect the bottom for this move may be lower than the flash crash bottom which may take 1 - 2 weeks more. How do we know? We aren't astrologers, right? But, what if there is no dip again? What if this is the bottom? Don't we miss the opportunity to buy lower here? Hence, we are forced to trade the technicals. We are coerced to trade the tape. There is no other alternative.

However, I would make sure that I would not sell short at this juncture, avoid it at any cost. I will choose to either stay in cash tomorrow (in which case I will monitor the daily chart) or buy my favorite stocks with 10 - 20% of my portfolio. I will have to closely watch the internals though, in case I buy. Caution is still warranted!

p.s: I had a meh day today, not worth the work. I bailed out of ASH in the early session at the open but didn't sell SH at today's bottom either. At the end of the day, I wasn't in profit compared to yesterday but didn't lose much either. I am lower today by 0.5%. Make no mistake, I am fully satisfied with my trading this month as I am up by 7%. I am searching for good buying opportunities here. I am flat and in full cash right now. Please take a look at GCI, LRCX, IBN, CREE. Thanks in advance for your feedback.

Dr. Copper

2010-05-16T04:39:00.000-07:00

Add to the chart above, Copper's last and strong supports end at 299 where the 50 and 200 week moving averages are.

$SPX

2010-05-13T16:09:00.000-07:00

Very short term: Sell signal issued
Short term and Intermediate term: Still on sell signal from 05/04

My EGO is bigger than yours

2010-05-13T14:19:00.000-07:00

The title is just a teaser, so take it easy. I made this chart today morning when I entered the EGO sell short at 17.95$. When you are selling short, your marker should be hourly chart, when you are long your attitude should be like buy-and-hold even if you are trading for few days. Corrections are sharp and vicious, rallies are slow and prolonged. You get the deal?

I know high beta names get clobbered during a sell off. But I select low beta names so that even if my timing is slightly off, I will still survive. It would also give me a chance to get out at the right point.

Today's market fall reiterates my cautious approach. If you played the rally to this day, congratulations to you! Goldman Sachs upgraded US Steel (X), so it rallied. Hence, ignore my H&S post on X now unless it goes and kisses the 50$ mark.

In the broad market, crude oil is getting whipped. The transports are not spared either. But, if crude oil continues its descent towards 70$, I would look at airlines. Not yet, but they will be worth a look. Airlines are not "value" stocks with every name posting a big loss every quarter but what the heck, no ticker name is earning. So, what goes if you buy airlines or US Steel. The market is speculative right now based on "forward" earnings.

Coming back to my trade, once I get my 3% on a short sale, I place my stop right at my 2% profit mark. If the stock reverses, I will still get out profitable. But, if the stock continues its slide, I will let it slide and get out when the MACD turns up again.

The chart is good on all overbought stocks but before you enter the trade, please make sure the stock actually follows technicals. I would actually check if the stock's recent action, based on your set up, demands a trade.

Market snapshot

2010-05-12T17:13:00.000-07:00

Click on the charts (weekly and daily) below:

US Steel

2010-05-11T08:08:00.000-07:00

Check the rules of Head & Shoulders.

Shhhhhhhhhhh.............

2010-05-11T04:48:00.000-07:00

Shhhhhhhhhhh.............Silence please! If you are looking to sell short the S&P500 index, you can directly short SPY. Some brokerages don't give you to sell short with as much freedom, then you can alternately look at buying SH. But, remember this is a leveraged (daily return) 1x short ETF.

Keep in mind that the next day's price is based on the inverse of % change from previous day's S&P500 index/ SPY. This is a lot better than 2x and 3x leveraged ETFs which are very volatile and difficult to manage. If you are not looking at closing the trade within few hours, I always suggest you to stay away from the 2x and 3x ETFs (most of them are daily % return ETFs). Among the inverse ETFs (even the 2x or 3x ETFs), I like the proshares ETFs which are well managed and their NAV (net asset value) is reset everyday correctly as opposed to horribly managed Direxion ETFs. Choose the ETFs which have good volume, atleast 1 - 2 M shares/ day, so that will ensure you get a thin spread at all times including extended hours. That gives you a good chance to get out of the trade if it is not going your way.

You have chosen an ETF and you are wondering suddenly during the day if the price per share is correct with its NAV. Let's say you bought FAZ. Do a google search using FAZ.IV as the search term. You will get the value of FAZ that should be the price at that point of time. If the .IV price is not close to the actual trading price, then you can be sure that it is badly managed. Choose the ETFs which trade close to their .IV.

There is a time to buy, there is a time to sell and there is a time to be in cash. Right now, IMHO, it is time either to be in cash or sell. After last thursday's disastrous crash, a snapback is expected. We got it yesterday. That gave another chance for those who forgot to take profits last week. After a crash, I would ideally like the market to consolidate, build momentum for few days and surge ahead. Short squeeze rallies like yesterday only result in frantic selling again. Infact, massive rallies are part of the crashes as seen recently during the Bear Stearns, Lehman brother period crashes.

What would you like to do after several months of unending upward trend?

a, Take profits for atleast few days, return when consolidation takes place and then buy good stocks?

b, Take profits for few hours and then frantically start buying again for few more months?

I guess you will concur that the former should be your investment behavior right now after incessant buying for 3 months from Feb to the end of April. I suggest you to be in cash so that you can slowly start buying when market settles and consolidates again. You can have a small % in short sales but if you do so, you have to be able to revert back to cash quickly when the buying opportunities exist.

Delta Neutral

2010-05-10T06:32:00.000-07:00

I am out of DAL during premarket for a gain of 4.5%. With the European volcanic ash returning and airports shut, things are not looking good. I don't care if Europe is bailed out etc. Out of MT at 38.05 during premarket as well.

I still hold 10% of my portfolio as longs but I would fade this move. Right now, my suggestion is to be in cash. More later...I need to catch up with the market.

Genworth Financial

2010-05-09T14:48:00.000-07:00

Since GNW was a leader of this bullmarket since March 09, I was looking at the charts after the horrible crash last week. I have to say that the news is not so good out from here in the Intermediate term. GNW escaped the slide during the 01/02 - 2010 slide which the indicators in the weekly chart below caught quite well. Look at the weekly chart below and it clearly showed the direction in January this year. Now looks more atleast (it could be worse though) like September 2009 - November 2009. You will have better chance to buy GNW when this crisis is all being said and done.

Consdering that we just started this down leg, if you are a holder GNW, you should have already sold last week when the +DI/ -DI crossed. If not, you should be looking to sell on any significant rally during the next week because the weekly/ Intermediate term doesn't look definitely good. On the daily chart, GNW is oversold but the PPS on the daily may not move much higher when the weekly is falling. GNW may eventually fall to the 200 dma. If it falls lower than the 200 dma, then that generates a sell short signal.

All in all, signal is sell on GNW. I would be keeping a close eye on this stock and will post a chart when we see a buy signal.

I will update my take on the overall market later today night.

Who saved the world yesterday?

2010-05-07T14:45:00.000-07:00

There are many conspiracy theories on who stopped the plunge yesterday after a 1000+ drop on the $DJI. I looked at the $SPX, $COMPX and the $DJI. Look at this chart:

So, can we rename the 50 week moving average as the PPT?

Positive divergence: post volcano ASH

2010-05-07T09:24:00.000-07:00

If you are looking for a technically correct buy, consider Delta Airlines. After the volcanic ash descended over Europe, DAL (chart below) fell as much as 20% in less than one month. But, the internals on the daily chart bottomed before the price per share did. You can see that the RSI bottomed few days back and actually formed a positive divergence which is a sign of strength and predicts that the stock will go up in near term. I would consider buying DAL here, but definitely yes on a breakout above 12.5$. Times are uncertain, so please place your own stops. I bought yesterday at 11.7$ before close.

If you are looking for a fundamentally correct buy, look at Ashland Inc. This chemical manufacturing company posted only a loss in one quarter in the last 3 years and has always beaten analysts expectations. Coming from a recession, the trailing P/E is only 13 which I think is excellent. This was one of the stocks that escaped the January 2010 market plunge, that is a sign of strength. Buy with a stop below 52.5$. I bought today at 54.29$ after the plunge and recovery.

Channels

2010-05-07T04:38:00.000-07:00

I posted few days back on selling Big steel. The targets have been reached. 2 things can happen here. MT could go to the upper trendline of the current channel or the lower trendline of the previous channel. First it needs to clear the horizontal resistance line. I bought some MT yesterday. MT is an ADR from Europe, hence some of that decline was due to the lower Euro against USD since the last few months. Strengthening of the Euro will help the European stocks trading in US market and vice versa.

Ford is also in a channel. I will be buyer if F closes above 12.06$ with a stop below 11.9$.

Buy BAC if a close above 16.4$ . Sell stop at 16.05$.

Buy GNW with a stop if 15$ is cleared.

The market needs to clear 1150 on the $SPX if it needs to continue the intermediate secular bull trend. Most of the charts are looking like they are setting up H&S on the daily charts. A trip to 1150 - 1160 and then coming back down would be a perfect recipe for that. Be cautious, be nimble and set alerts. I know the buy and sell levels on many stocks as I mark them when I look at a chart and when I review a chart, the first thing I do is set the alert in my brokerage as I see the level. When the market crashed yesterday, emails started to pour to my work email. I knew within seconds that something big was wrong. I looked at my mobile trading platform which confirmed my suspicion. Here is a snapshot of some of my emails from my brokerage yesterday when that happened:

Audio from the trading pits yesterday, thanks to zerohedge.

Nuclear bombs

2010-05-06T15:13:00.000-07:00

What happens when systems crash? What happens when nuclear bombs explode? My broker is thinkorswim and they are excellent on any other trading day. They offer good help when needed. But, when hell broke loose today, I know all brokerages and computers messed up. I have a computer for trading at work (I have a full time job BTW). My home computer is open for trading even when I am out, so that if anybody is at home and I am out shopping or running errands and notice a buying opportunity on my mobile phone, I call home and ask my households to pick the trade for me. So, when earth exploded today, my work computer was messed up due to rapid fire ticking. I had to restart and by the time, it restarted I missed many opportunities. I bought some on my mobile but you how slow that works. I was stopped on all longs, took some profits on shorts. I am up on the day by 0.3%, not bragworthy but I am happy that I was able to even trade at that time.

I came home and my home computer (which is open for trading when I am out) was stuck because thinkorswim caused problems. I am not blaming them, it is natural for any brokerage to do the same when the systems get messy. I was able to take a screenshot, here it is:

I will post my trades, some charts to watch and what you should do later today and this weekend. Let the dust settle. My feeling now is that the shenigans behind this will keep the market propping up for few days. Hence, stay long and light. If you are short, be cautious.

FEZ

2010-05-05T16:11:00.000-07:00

If you are long this market, buy puts on FEZ.

Rate Hike

2010-05-04T20:28:00.000-07:00

The media is playing the wrong ball. Watching the 1st 2 hours of sell-off today, they offered different excuses - one of which was a subway bomb threat in London. Oh really? When did the markets sell off 2% based on threats?

My top 2 reasons for today's sell-off:

1, Last night, RBA hiked rates for the 6th time. Australia has been on a tear on all fronts while American economy was limping last year and is possibly overheating.

2, UK and Germany elections: UK elections are predicted to post an indecisive result with close contests. What do you expect the market to do in such circumstances? Election years are not generally good for the markets. The incumbents and their stooges who benefited from the regime's policies will sell to protect their investments which are already in profits. Germany will go elections next week and I expect the market to swing wild ways till both the election results are digested. German elections explained here .

IWM

2010-05-03T11:10:00.000-07:00

It is prudent to remain long on small caps above (and short below) the support line which is 78.6% retracement of the 2007 highs vs the 2009 lows.

$SPX is above the 10 DMA = 1202.2. Since the rally started in March 2009, it has been wise to stay long above the 10 DMA close.

I also like ASH to buy if the above conditions are met. Stop at 60.22$. A chart has been posted few days back. Please use the search feature available on this blog.

Big Steel

2010-05-01T18:34:00.000-07:00

Let's look at the charts of Big steel global names today:

MT seems to be in the downward channel. My target is 36$ but if it goes to kiss the lower trendline of this channel, that will be extra good.

Both BHP, and RTP are out of the rising trendlines. They may attempt to get above, that will be a good time to sell short. If they go back above the trendline, close the trade. Australia is reviewing their rates on Tuesday, so this is not a good time to go long these names before the rate decision.

RTP (chart below) split 4:1 on friday but it still slipped big.

Watch for breakout

2010-04-29T19:38:00.000-07:00

GE is on the cusp of breakout. Buy the breakout, if it holds at the close of the day. Don't buy in anticipation.

YZC broke out. I suggested the breakout before. Rather than chasing, buy the pullback with a stop at 25$.

6th sense

2010-04-26T19:52:00.000-07:00

I am out of home since last weekend through this wednesday on a business meeting. Enjoy this video and the sequels to this video meanwhile!

It is decision time

2010-04-23T17:54:00.000-07:00

Read my post 1 month back. If you played that support and resistance, you should have made coin both long and short end. It is that time again and F is waiting at the resistance line. If it goes down, the market may just shrug off. But, if it goes up, believe me, there will be another parabolic rise in the market indices. Please pay close attention to F on tuesday at earnings central, premarket.

BTW, I told you in July 2009 that BAC will never cross 20$ again. Let's see - one way or the other should be decided in few days.

AAPL's target

2010-04-23T04:46:00.000-07:00

AAPL has been going up in a parabolic fashion. What will stop it?

Often times the full objectivity is not achieved. I would give a target of $275 +/- 5. Buy 220$ puts at that level. There is an outside chance though. If the $300 is cleared, it is off to the races from there. Let's look at similar example, BIDU. It had similar parabolic rise and is struggling at that level for many days.

Amazon earnings

2010-04-22T11:52:00.000-07:00

Amazon is scheduled to post earnings for the Q1 2010 tonight. I am not going to post a pps chart this time. AMZN is at the all time highs. When there are no previous support and resistance levels above this range, if I post a chart all that will do is only pure speculation. Instead of that, I am attaching an options (both puts and calls) chart with expiry capped till July 10. The chart is sorted out descending with highest IV option on the top.

What do you see?

Earnings play: LRCX

2010-04-20T17:31:00.000-07:00

Buy the breakout or sell the double top: LRCX. Earnings is tomorrow, so let it resolve first. Have patience, please.

Arcelor Mittal

2010-04-19T08:29:00.000-07:00

If Chile earthquake was good for the copper prices (and the market), Iceland volcano didn't do much good for the crude oil prices. With so much air traffic snarled up in Europe, the oil shenigans can't push crude oil up. That is sort of revenge from mother nature on the markets without any loss of life. I got a sell signal on MT today. Sell all rallies. The horizontal line may offer support. If the line holds and bounces, cover your short sale; If that line breaks, sell more.

BHP Billiton

2010-04-17T19:09:00.000-07:00

How long will the dip buying on the trendline bounce continue? Buy on the bounce, sell aggressively on the trendline break. BHP is now on the sell signal BTW. RTP's chart holds close semblance except there is noise from China about its executives being prosecuted. charting RTP is your homework. :)

Sugar sugar Honey!

2010-04-16T11:27:00.000-07:00

Sell the sugar bubble. ROC is struggling to get back to 0. Sell all rallies. Period. End of discussion.

What do you call that pattern of candles in the ellipse? Lol.

Sell BHI with a stop at 48.5$. You can go long on a reverse (of crude oil prices). I had this stock on my buy list till today. $83 is what seperates bull and bears on /CL.

The market is puking today, but you can't say the same with PUK. I like the price action. I will buy the stock with any market strength. Please place your stops appropriately, please.

Freeport McMoran

2010-04-16T07:53:00.000-07:00

Sold FCX with stop at 85$. 83$ is the level where I set a sell. I have had the same chart on FCX for a while posted several times on this blog, so please search the blog for old FCX charts for my lines of support/ resistance.

I am short BAC now (critical level was 19.42$, please check/ search my old posts on BAC and GE), sold ALK at 44.95$, out of UAUA.

Support for XLF is 16.08, search this blog for a post on XLF last week. Thanks.

Pair trade

2010-04-15T10:21:00.000-07:00

Buy CLF, Sell X. Place your stops according to your risk.

Some potential breakouts

2010-04-15T04:02:00.000-07:00

Charts are setting up nicely with several potential breakouts.

1, Look at the Google search bar on the right hand column of this blog. Search for BAC, XLF. You know the breakout lines. If you didn't understand what I said, leave a message, I will do some xplaining.

2, GE - Buy on a breakout above 19.6$. Stop at 19.

3,NKE - Good breakout and is actually taking rest at the breakout level. Buy with a stop below that line.

4. WNC - If the recovery is real, trucking companies benefit a lot from that. Look at WNC which has broke out in the last 2 weeks. Buy after a modest pullback.

5. BUCY - Buy on a breakout. The last 3 days' action showed upclose.

6. Buy AMAT on a breakout above 14.87$

Alaska air group

2010-04-14T17:55:00.000-07:00

I don't care if the market is overbought. If there is a breakout, buy it. Buy above 44.75$ with a stop at 44.

p.s: covered HUM, MEE, holding UAUA long with a stop at 21.75$. :)

Petroleo

2010-04-13T02:54:00.000-07:00

A short set up for you: PBR . PBR hit the death cross few days back and crossed below the 200 dma yesterday. Short on a close below the 50 dma, which is highly bearish for the stock again. Please place a (convenient) stop above your short price.

Thermal coal

2010-04-12T04:53:00.000-07:00

If the market and crude oil continues to rally, thermal coal stocks is the way to go. I like YZC on a break out about the previous high.

ASH is not quite a thermal coal company but I like the chart here. I will buy on a pullback to the 58$ area (with a stop 2$ below that) as it formed a support there. If that line fails, I have no hesitation to short it.

ipad play MSPD seems to have broken out but I will be comfortable buying at 9.35$.

China posts trade deficit

2010-04-10T19:35:00.000-07:00

China posted a trade deficit for the first time in 70 months. Analysts were expecting the deficit to be in $ millions. But, they posted a deficit of 7 B $ which definitely surprised me. It is significant but will the market take that news seriously or will it be buried in the neverending Greece bailout news? Why did China post a deficit? It is old news that nobody except China is piling up the inventories. Copper has been running up and up and there has been speculation that was because of real estate boom (call it bubble if you like) in China. The story is quite different though. "Growing copper inventories at metals-exchange warehouses (half a million tonnes or so by some estimates) have coincided with increasing prices. The same seems to be happening with aluminium, lead and nickel. In the past, prices have fallen as warehouse inventories have risen." Huh?

With the market extremely overbought, I would turn your attention to FCX. Sell short on a break of 83$.

BRF should breakout in the direction of crude oil. Trade accordingly.

If the market turns lower, CAL should be a neat short. Check the chart of UAUA

If UAUA breaks 20$, go short. If it breaks above 21, go long.

More charts tomorrow.......................

XLF: Where does it stop?

2010-04-07T04:11:00.000-07:00

I don't complicate the charts with EWaves that don't work. Let's keep it simple. XLF is trading at 16.41 as of yesterday's close. If you are like me, you must be wondering for the past several weeks to months on where this goes.

16.86 is the 38.3% retracement level on XLF from peak to trough of the last crash. That is target # 1. If that is cleared, then there is no resistance upto 18.74 as you can see from the yellow zone. There is a gap to be filled in that yellow zone. I don't think that gap will ever fill. The RSI (14), Full stochs, and Rate of change (not shown in chart) show that XLF is not fully overbrought at this level. You must be in awe but that is the truth. Don't fight against the tape, don't even touch FAZ and SKF till then. Wait for the target to be reached and then reassess from there. 20.33 is the 50% and 23.8 is the 61.8%. Will we go all the way to 61.8% level or even the 100%? Hmmm....will you survive till then?

HUM

2010-04-06T14:31:00.000-07:00

Go long or short depending on the stock crossing the MAs. I like the action today with the PPS crossing over the moving averages to the upside with higher volume than regular. 10, 30 and 50 MAs are in the 47.55 - 47.77 range. So, if you go long, place a stop @ 47.35 or close the trade if HUM closes below the moving averages. Just go short there because it can't criss cross the MAs everyday up and down. If it does criss cross, it means technicals are not working. You should be out of the stock.

If you are short MEE, close at 46.5$. Check the chart Short any rally near 50$. It is unfortunate that the incident of mine crash killed 25 miners. If only the coal mines take safety precautions seriously, these things don't happen.

If crude oil continues to rise, go short on the airlines.

Nimble trading

2010-04-05T08:32:00.000-07:00

While we may be there (at the top), I don't view this as the all time top for years to come, like many bears are predicting. The US Government has a plan, and unfortunately we have to follow their plan to bank $, because their printing presses are bigger than ours. You might be thinking the treasury (or Fed or whoever) is not purchasing MBS anymore (after March 31st) and hence, the financials will tank from here and never recover. If you notice the announcement of Citigroup's sale by the US Government, the sale will take place after Citi announces their Q1 2010 results. The results are due to be announced on 04-19th (Monday morning the week after OPEX). If the US Government don't know how they are going to manage the sale, do you think they will schedule it after the earnings report? Don't be so naive, they are not going to sell their shares for a lower price. May be the market doesn't rally like it did, for the last 1 year but I am sure that they won't allow tankage to abyssmal levels.

My suggestion is you should be nimble and trade accordingly. Yes, you need to take into account the US Government and Helicopter Ben's noise even if you are a perfect chartist or technician.

Good Luck trading All (GLTA)!

HDFC Bank Limited

2010-04-04T05:54:00.000-07:00

HDFC Bank (ticker is HDB) stalled at 144.21 which is exactly (to the penny) the all time previously recorded in 2007. A successful close 3 days above that would mean a break out and will set HDB for a run up. A break below 138, however, will mark a double top. You can short it all the way to atleast 122 and then we will reassess from there. The purple lines are the fib retracements from previous highs to lows.

IBN is one stock that follows the technicals well. I would buy it after a pullback to the 40.7 - 41 area with a stop at 39.75. IMO, it will run to the 47$ area atleast. Break below 39.5$ will trigger a short signal with a target of 35.5$. Search this blog using the google search on the right hand side of this blog. You will see my previous posts on IBN.

Sell short RDY if a break below 27$ happens.

TTM is one hot stock. It is approaching its all time high at 20.85$. A successful close above 21$ would mark a break out, watch the volume. I would be neutral until that breakout happens, not short nor long at these levels.

A classic fake out in the case of INFY. It broke above its previous all time high of 60.4$ but closed below that 2 days later. I would watch for similar patterns in all the names mentioned. There is no hurry even in case of a breakout. I want confirmation of a break out with a close for 3 days in a row on a good volume. The markets are extremely overbought, so proceed with caution. You can always go long on a pullback to the previous support line.

Ignore the gaps in the above stocks as they are ADRs. The gaps are caused by currency fluctuations.

Last week's charts are still good. Go through last week's F, MEE, DAL, UAUA, GNW again. If you traded them, congrats! Only GNW was a miss. ENER and SPWRA bounced but I wouldn't go long at these levels, not yet atleast!

Humble Pie

2010-03-29T17:17:00.001-07:00

Sometimes you got to eat humble pie and I don't mind if a genuine trader predicts that. I ridiculed Daryl Guppy (scroll lower on that link) but after 6 months he is very close to being correct on all predictions. Nobody is perfect but he was correct in his timing and direction. I give a hats off to him. He manages a forum and blogs on charting Asia . He is too good a chartist.

For short sale is MEE with a stop of 56.5 and target of atleast 10 - 15% lower buy.

Some more charts...

2010-03-28T16:19:00.000-07:00

There are tickers which I ask you to go both long or short depending on the price movement. But, I wouldn't go long at this point of time on the 4 below. Either you go short or stay away.

One of the stocks that I liked in the last 1 1/2 yrs and consistently behaved as predicted is SPWRA. Bounce off the 18 - 20 area towards 30- 35, repeatedly just like clock work. You could predict where is going. Not anymore. Consequences of a break of 17.75 would be fatal. Go short if it breaks that level, with a stop at 18.75$. If SPWRA breaks 22.5, I would then think of going long. I don't see good results for the solar sector despite the crushing that they took recently.

A break of 6.8$ would be fatal for ENER. I see this stock going PALM route.

DAL and GNW have significant headwinds at this level with both trendline resistance and fib lines obstructing the spike. Both are atleast short term 5 - 10% shorts here. The indigo lines are fib retracement levels. GNW's IPO price is acting as resistance here.

Bias:
short term - Believe the tape already turned bearish, waiting for confirmation.
Intermediate - Bullish
Long term - Bearish.

F for Ford

2010-03-27T17:34:00.000-07:00

You sell when the stock dips into the orange zone and buy in the green zone. No rush, this stock is not going anywhere. But, still you have to have a stop.

There is heavy call option buying in UAUA. Plus there are no shares to short. I've tried 2 days in a row, it didn't work. Try placing a short sale order in thinkorswim, it doesn't hurt to try as the markets are closed anyway. Something must be going on, you must be wondering. Look at the chart:

Hedgies gobble up all the stock to short to leave none for retail shorts and then buy call options as a hedge. Mind you, if they want to cause a short squeeze, you will be crushed. So, maintain caution by placing a stop at 21$ if you short UAUA. Go long if it breaks 21.5$. There is no stiff resistance. Same holds good for F.

More charts coming during the weekend....stay put.

Gap fill post

2010-03-26T18:53:00.000-07:00

After last week's PALM bite, I was busy trading (both long and short) PALM this week and made some coin. I didn't have time to look at other charts or blog. I took yesterday and today off from trading. But, I am still at a big loss. I wasn't disciplined to cut off loss and run, I suffered. Discipline, discipline, discipline!

Just for the time being, enjoy these 2 charts.

More charts coming your way this weekend.

PALM's disaster

2010-03-20T06:21:00.000-07:00

At one moment, after the earnings call, PALM will skyrocket. It went as high as 5.94. I sold some at 5.8$. Then, it started drifting lower even while the conference call was going on. I dropped the ball at 4.95$ as I was trying to chase the price. I still have a chunk of shares and if PALM goes .pk, then I will have to think about writing those off on the tax forms next year. Lol, thinking about next year's tax forms while this year's tax statement didn't complete.

On the other hand, my oil short DTO is going the way I planned. But, I will follow strict discipline and not take losses.

Wait for my weekend post.

OPEC meeting

2010-03-16T14:17:00.000-07:00

OPEC meeting has always been sell the news - sentimental
The economy has not recovered yet, so no reason to spike the oil up - fundamental
The MACD, Stochs, RSI and all point down - technical

I am in DTO today after the Fed meeting but I am not married to DTO. I have my stop and will switch to long USO if oil breaks above the level (marked in chart).

What is worrying me is PALM. I am down ~ 3% but it is not showing any signs of strength even after the technicals are trying to push it up. Making me nervous!

Note: How did you think Fed will allow the market to go down the same day they schedule a meeting? Hmmmm.....

Crude oil and FOMC

2010-03-16T04:13:00.000-07:00

I was holding EDZ and DTO into the open yesterday morning. Today is FOMC day, which means wild chopping is expected going into FOMC. Hence, I took profits on DTO at 65.25 and EDZ at 47.5 and closed the positions. I am sure I will open buy on DTO again today before the FOMC meeting. The MACD on the crude oil crossed down , I expect the downward trend which started on Thursday to continue. I would place 7% lower stop if you are opening a new position in DTO. I think 75$ will act as support for crude oil this time, should we go lower. But, if by any chance, /CL goes lower than that ( ~ 72$) - I don't expect the oil prices to recover as I see a H & S pattern there.

chart for you:

Note: I am seeing wide and open bearish tones on the market being overbought here. I even hear many bears say that we are going down straight to 300 on S n P. Come on, don't be so naive. The Fed is in complete control and barring any catastrophe, I don't see that scenario from happening. Most of the bears forgot that the Fed hasn't closed their MBS purchases yet; still they were expecting the market to tank in Feb. Keeping that in view, I say that there may be a small dip here but not anything to the levels that bears are expecting - atleast not in March when the Fed is still pumping money.

GLTA!

Shanghai index

2010-03-14T14:18:00.000-07:00

Follow Shanghai index with ticker $DJSH on Thinkorswim or Prophet charts. Trade using FXI/ FXP. Shanghai index looks ripe for a breakout, above or below. Trade the direction of the breakout. My perception is that it will break above but even if otherwise, just follow the trend.

PALM

2010-03-11T14:35:00.001-08:00

With over 40% of the shares in short interest, and every girl and her lesbian girlfriend being short, I expect a short squeeze very soon. I can hear the shorts screaming at YAHOO without any sleep whatsoever. MACD is curling up, a small trend change into earnings date next week is expected. Higher (10%) or lower (5%) - sell, sell, sell! I am long DTO, another wild monster, with a 8% stop.

Nobody in this blogworld attempted to answer yesterday's question. The last day green candles on $VIX and $SPX at the trend reversal last time. $VIX was negative today but the technicals are trending up. There will be a market reversal pretty soon. Pick up some 3x bad boyz on the way! The "z" type of 3x s that are, you know what I mean. ;)

Green candles!

2010-03-10T13:25:00.000-08:00

When was the last time both $SPX and $VIX closed green on the daily charts? And what was the significance?

Don't sweat bullets. I am posting the chart. All you need to do is, identify when it happened.

Intraday SPY

2010-03-09T10:52:00.001-08:00

A simple chart - where is the volume?

What may be the saving grace for the Bears?

2010-03-05T18:27:00.000-08:00

That is a big if, if you ask me. Tonight, I decided to take a look at the historical S & R of atleast the major indices rather than trying to decipher EW waves (and their alternate wave counts that are posted the very next day the main count is posted) which bloggers are posting on every blog. No offence, everyone has their own beliefs, let's leave it there. I give high value to the fibs but since this tape is defying that too, hence I wanted to go simple and old fashioned way of looking at supports and resistances based on previous trading history.

I think I may have found an answer. If you look at the 10 year chart of $SPX, you will know that we spent about 8 months in sideways trading in 2004 at these levels (@1100 +/- 50). ~ 1085 acted as support, ~1144 acted as resistance. Later on, the market never looked back once that level was broken and higher in Nov. 04. If 1145 level holds from going higher, then fine. You are looking at a point of no return if 1160 is pierced. There may be a mad short squeeze if that level is broken, I assume big guys like Chanos are still holding their shorts from 2007 and will be forced to cover. The 1125 - 1140 level was the only level where the market paused when the market plunged at the time the Lehman brothers went broke.

$DJI offers the same pattern.

$COMPX is often viewed as froth by many analysts. But, if you look at which index bottomed 1st in this market and which index gained more, it is the OTC. $COMPX also stalled the current levels for few months. But that was not in 2004, it was in 2006 -mind you. Basically, that means $COMPX is moving up stronger than the other 2 indices. It also means that the stocks in $COMPX are valued more by the money managers. Hence, don't short the Qs.

That's it guys. If the market stalls at these levels, you may have a chance. Otherwise I suggest you to place a stop a little higher than these levels. Don't be stubborn. You know it by now if you have read and looked carefully the charts. Nighty night!

p.s: Congratulations to the bulls.

Stockwatch - JTX

2010-03-05T04:53:00.000-08:00

Buy orders at 2.15 & 2.05. Target 3$, stop 1.75$

FCX - Update

2010-03-03T09:25:00.000-08:00

Stopped out of FCX short position at 80.2$. The high of the day is 80.25$ but I can't keep adjusting the stops as they go higher and higher. It is better to be stopped out than later rue for not being stopped out. May be FCX will crash but sometimes you just can't help it. I placed that stop in such a way that I will end up at no loss (as I already took partial profits last week) and also that is ~2% above the 50 dma. I may renter the position on a break of 50 dma. The market is overbought at this level, but is not yielding to the bears at all. None, nada, zip. Hence, I closed my RJET position for a good >20% profit in few days. I value RJET and will reenter(higher or lower) later. The market may go higher from here or churn without going lower, who knows. I am in 100% cash now and am looking to initiate a double short ETF (Brazil? China?).

How long can they hold it up?

2010-03-02T11:28:00.001-08:00

Well, they can hold it up for sometime, not forever. Nobody can defy Isaac Newton's AAPL law.

Is the market going higher?

2010-03-02T01:47:00.000-08:00

In the last 2 days, Euro has been weak but the US indices have strangely stopped following the Euro. Whether the Euro rises or falls, the stock market continues to go higher. So, it means the Bears are doomed. or it is a technique to shake weak bears off. The only chance for the bears was on thursday of last week when the $SPX fell 25 points but retraced to close just 2 points lower. It was strange buying. I have seen capitulation at the opening, but the market went lower for almost 2 1/2 hours (not opening nor closing) and then suddenly it decided to go higher and higher for the day. There was no news, nothing of significance happened. Weird and strange! The studies (RSI, Stochs, etc) on the indices are pointing lower in the next few days but this market just doesn't listen to anything. It just goes higher.

I will cover 2 stocks (/ETF) that are not yet defying the technicals. FCX has followed the technicals. It fell as low as 70.75$. I covered part position at 73$ when it was pulling back that fateful day last week but I am still net short with a stop at 80.4$. Yesterday there was mad rush at the opening and everyone seemed to be buying FCX in the wake of the Chile earthquake with an opinion that copper production has stopped. I thought may be FCX will make the 50dma as support. It fell after a grand opening and didn't challenge the 50 dma again. Copper rose almost 3% yesterday but the momentum didn't exist through the day yesterday. As I am typing this now, Copper is trading lower today. FCX has its 50 dma obstructing its spike. If the bulls can't take it above the 50 dma in the next couple of days, they will exhaust themselves into selling their positions.

Oil followed Euro (or inverse to USD) the whole last week, it is good the correlation still exists in some stocks/ ETFs. Oil here looks clearly like rolling to me. I maintain a negative rating this week too.

RJET continued its run higher yesterday. At one point, it was 10% higher but couldn't maintain the momentum. It now rests on the 50 dma support, 6.04 is the next support. Resistance is at 6.37. I will take profits (on a partial position) with a stop at 5.97 if it goes lower.

How is Elliot wave working for you? Keep it simple and short man. Don't make trading complicated with trash like EW. I just watched Robert Pretcher's interview on Tech ticker. He has been the same since 1978, a negative nelly. He may be right once like a broken clock. But, don't follow him, you will be doomed. You shouldn't be following Pretcher, Taleb, Roubini, or Atilla. Have a good week!

Breakout?

2010-03-01T03:17:00.000-08:00

I checked my sources again on the institutional holders of RJET. In fact, Goldman Sachs holds more than 2 million shares of RJET.

Let's get back to the main topic. Is it a break out or a fake out? A breakout needs a 2nd day confirmation. A textbook breakout also needs volume confirmation on the 2nd day. RJET broke out of the 5s on Friday and closed at 6.09.

RJET broke out of the contracting channels higher and in the process reversed the direction of RSI and stochs.

The 1st evidence will usually be seen in the smaller timeframe charts. Look no further than the hourly charts to know 1st whether a stock is breaking higher or not. Unless the breakout occurs on a gap up, you have a chance to catch this move.

Anyway, the next resistance seems to be the 50dma and then a resistance line at 6.37 both of which obstructed RJET's spike higher. Immediate support is ofcourse 6.03.

If RJET goes higher, you have your ST and IT targets. Several factors like thge general market, current oil prices etc must cooperate, however. RJET hedges by buying OTM call options in Oil.

Enjoy your day!

Cross Roads

2010-02-28T06:32:00.000-08:00

We are at crossroads now. Nobody knows whether the market is going to go higher, lower or sideways from here. On $SPX, 1107-1110 is resistance, 1086-1092 is support. If 1086 breaks, then next supports are 1075, 1044, 1014. If $SPX breaks above 1100, then next resistances are 1125, 1150, ...1200...1243.

The earthquake that happened yesterday in Chile was sad. There was a major earthquake last month in Haiti and then this, in a space of 45 days. Chile's earthquake may not have major impact on the general world markets but will definitely influence the copper prices and the stocks that depend on it. Chile supplies about 35% of the copper for the world and the mines were shut down in Chile due to the earthquake. We can see Copper prices going north from here. On friday, Copper was trading above the 50 dma and if prices go higher, the 50 dma acts as support. Dr Copper always leads the markets, atleast by a few weeks. So, this is significant here.

Another indicator that I am looking here is Vixxy dixxy. If $VIX makes a short term higher low, then expect a lower trend in the market and viceversa.

Why is the $VIX so subdued recently? You need to look at major Big caps like AMZN and GOOG for that. AMZN and GOOG are right now in a coil and they will soon be released with a break out.

AMZN

GOOG is already out of the coil, but I don't see a definite pattern yet. We will see a breakout next week atleast, I hope. Look at the hourly charts for confirmation of this breakout.

I was looking at AMZN and GOOG keenly because they are market movers along with AAPL. Look for more AAPL rumors (lol) next week. Both AMZN and GOOG charts ^^ are overlayed with $VIX on the leftscale.

Today evening, I will post a chart of a stock that broke out last week out of a similar pattern. Comments and criticism are welcome!

One word....

2010-02-25T21:24:00.001-08:00

Before I sleep, 1 word:

Jamie Dimon, despite all the SPY buying says there is a chance of double dip. It must be doubly hard to hold the market up here. :)

RJET (earnings released early!!!)

2010-02-24T15:03:00.000-08:00

I hold a considerable amount of Republic airways shares at this time. RJET is one of the few airlines (along with Airtran, Jetblue, Southwest....) to report profits in the last 2 years. But, since these names are only regional carriers, they trade in single digits unlike the big names like Delta, United, Continental who post only losses quarter after quarter.

RJET is scheduled to release its earnings tomorrow before bell. I am not interested in knowing if they beat the estimates or not, I am just interested in what their outlook for the close term is. I am interested in knowing how well Frontier and Midwest are fitting into their plan. The conference call tomorrow morning will give us (atleast) a faint idea of how the company will function in near term. So, basically it means, as of now, I know nothing about RJET. I am holding RJET with a confidence that the profitability of the past will continue into the future. Debt (due to the acquisitions) is definitely a concern though. I reckon that is already baked into the low price.

Technical POV:

Resistance and support lines based on past trading, 4.9$ is a strong support, then 4.5$ and then 4.1$. Below that, none!

based on moving averages, stochs, MACDs and RSI - all pointing down, not good...not good....

Interestingly, RJET entered a low volatility zone during the last few days. Hence, the Bollinger Bands tucked into the Keltner channels. The Bollinger bands will eventually have to break out taking the stock with them. Most of the time, the stock will follow the break out in the same direction it moves out of the channel. It will follow the momentum oscillator sometimes (indicated below). Though everything else points down (including the general market), the momentum oscillator is pointing up. That could be a fake out. We will better know in 2 days.

I looked at the stock performance in the past few years after quarterly earnings results. RJET mostly moved down, so for now the near trend points towards south.

There was chatter of mergers in the sector initiated by the United CFO in news yesterday. RJET is already the biggest regional airlines in USA. I have no doubt that RJET won't be merging or acquiring anymore but mergers usually are good for the sector itself which in turn may turn the momentum up. RJET just needs some momentum to spike up and that should turn the stock close to its book value of 7.5$ - 8$.

Comments are welcome!

Edit: Earnings released early - link

Airlines

2010-02-23T20:51:00.000-08:00

Did you notice the airlines didn't sell off much today? I am going to do a detailed post tomorrow.

VIX closed below 50 dma. oops....

sorry for the small post. I am typing this from my mobile..kinda testing. GLTA!

Jet Blue

2010-02-23T07:59:00.000-08:00

I am watching JBLU closely, if it will close below the 200 DMA, I will short it for a measured target of atleast 4.75$.

Watching XLF which is bouncing on support; Both $DJI and $COMPX are below the 50 DMA now. Signal is to sell any rally.

$VIX is having problems crossing the resistance 50DMA above. I would be watching VIX which is important that anything.

Rock N Roll

2010-02-23T04:40:00.000-08:00

I am posting some stocks that are ready to rock and roll down. Today we have 44 B $ Treasury auction and tomorrow we have Bernanke giving testimony at the Capitol Hill. So, they may try to hold the market up. Let's come back next week and look where these stocks are. Place your stops according to your risk tolerance.

Stocks that are pretending to go higher:

Fighting the trend

2010-02-22T11:29:00.000-08:00

The market is fighting against too many odds and that does not bode well. One of which is.......FCX.

Go short FCX with a stop at 80.2$. If FCX follows the suggested trend, then cover when you meet the 200 DMA as shown.

God save the Volatility index

2010-02-17T15:50:00.000-08:00

Where did the $VIX stop today? ^^ Once the support is broken, VIX will go tumbling to the lower BB. That will be all bets off for the Bears. Watch out and let's see tomorrow!

Technicals

2010-02-17T08:51:00.000-08:00

AAPL dropped today from 203$ to 201.25$. There was a thin line (of enormous significance!!!) between. AAPL dropped below the 50 DMA at 202.03 and continued its slide. But, just now, it started moving up again to 202.1$. I was wondering why the bounce. I frantically searched for different time periods on the charts; I found that AAPL bounced off the 200 period moving average on the 5 day, 5 min chart (above). Technicals are very important for this market dominated by the hedgefunds who are trading with super computers.

Watch out if AAPL closes below 50 DMA today. Fundamentals are important, but technicals are more important. BAC is struggling with the 50 DMA as well. BAC, IMHO, is setting up as a nice short. If you short it here, place a stop @ 15.90 - 16$.

Enjoy!

Bank of America

2010-02-16T09:23:00.001-08:00

Bank of America trying to get above the resistance as of Tuesday 02-16 at 11:24 CST. I don't think it will go above that today. But, Market makers can possibly do a gap up (tomorrow) like they did with AAPL today morning. Still, BAC has a resistance @15.45$; So, I don't think there is much room for longs here.

I would wait till the situation resolves itself and then go long or short. It is better to wait than to be sorry.

BTW, Read my previous BAC posts last year using the search bar on this blog.

Hi Ya!

2010-02-15T15:14:00.000-08:00

I am back. I probably didn't miss much as the market has been just here (check my last post, can you believe it!) when I took a break. It was not intentional, I injured my left wrist while I was changing my tyre and that was it. My fingers are still tingling but I was told I will lose stiffness only if I work my fingers.

so, What is cooking in the market? 50 DMA, 200 DMA, Black cross - every trader and his grandmother probably are discussing this. What I definitely know is, market doesn't follow leads. Or it may follow the technicals albeit in unimaginable manner.

But, I can conclude that the bulls have clear resistance as the wounds of the quasi-bull market 2003-07 are still fresh with dubai, greece, you-name-it causing problems.

Resistance # 77 = 200 week moving average for the tech index, $COMPX weekly chart:

Resistance for AAPL = 50 DMA @ 201.7$

Music

2009-11-10T18:40:00.001-08:00

Silent charts

2009-10-31T13:12:00.000-07:00

Check this . Includes 2 bear markets and a bull market. What's next?

$SPX vs $VIX

2009-10-29T12:16:00.000-07:00

I am short the market at the moment, long SPXU. My stops are 1/2% above the marked resistances.

Bank of America struggling.....

2009-10-29T08:01:00.000-07:00

What was support for 3 months is resistance now [look at the chart for resistances and supports]. BAC struggling to go up today. A break above 15.6$ [I gave more room though my line is 15.43$] on convincing volume or weekly close [one is enough] is bullish for BAC and the market as a whole. On the other hand, look at the GE chart that I posted yesterday. GE is bouncing off that line. It is not too often that you see divergence on these 2 charts. Hence, I am cautious here. Please search all posts on this blog with label "BAC" and read them carefully.

p.s: I am short AMZN by virtue of Jan. 2010 100$ puts, thanks to Bollinger bands [on day, week and month charts - all of them] which aren't convinced of the recent bubble move on earnings. Stop at stock price of 128$.

When in doubt.....

2009-10-28T18:50:00.001-07:00

When in doubt...
When in crisis....
When at cross roads....

I open the GE chart.

Take a look at the 12 year chart. This is the chart I posted before GE broke out. I don't draw charts everyday, you know it.

Let's see what happens now. Just this one chart will define the bull vs bear direction now.

p.s: Crucial support for GS @ 169 - 170$.

IBN closed

2009-10-27T11:34:00.000-07:00

Before you proceed further, read my previous post on IBN.

Target achieved, short closed. Thanks!

BIDU

2009-10-26T15:22:00.000-07:00

Somebody namely michael vadon was advising his clients to buy BIDU yesterday. Ouch! I just hope nobody bought it though, not even mike. But, don't let him eVADON your questions.

Leave the suckers out and continue with the game now, my Sires....Look at 2 of your crucial indices.

$COMPX wedge play is still working. Now, what you got to do is - short the heck out of $COMPX if it breaks down the wedge. Later place a stop above the lower trend line of that wedge if it closes above. If it doesn't break the wedge tomorrow, follow it up and down till it breaks one way or the other.

$SPX?
this thing was supported for 1 1/2 hr by something called a 30 dma. If it breaks down, you are well looking for the 50 dma. If not, play the bounce.

The only thing that is working right now....

2009-10-22T15:36:00.001-07:00

In my last post, Mark left a comment that I am blog hating. Huh? Good one Mark, because atleast that way I have a chance to clarify. I don't blog hate. I hate hypocrisy. I hate bloggers who lie. I don't care if they are wrong in their assumptions. But, I do care if their 2nd persona shows up after a reversal of sorts that they don't expect. Anyway, leave that stupid things and let's concentrate on work again.

That's your simple COMPass [err...$COMPX] showing direction. Elliot waves? My foot, why don't you follow what is working and leave aside what is not working. Follow the channel [call rising or ascending wedge or whatever name you like...I don't care what name you use] till it breaks on either side. Though I marked Dec 14th in the figure, I reckon this drama could only go on till it reaches 2250 [61.8% retracement].

Simple Sir, really simple it is! Follow what works till it doesn't!

p.s: Did you notice FTSE stalling @ 5200, NIKKEI struggling in the low 10ks for few months now though some of the markets have been pushing upwards. Divergence that is what I call..one by one each market runs out of gas and a collapse ensues unless the divergence breaks down.

Did you buy.............?

2009-10-21T08:44:00.000-07:00

FCX ??? Nope you didn't. You were listening to bear blogs who suddenly show up with longs or hedges when you think they are short heavily. Ouch!

$WTIC

2009-10-15T09:52:00.000-07:00

3 weeks later this post is still valid. Reiterate that the WTIC price to watch is 78.2$ and Eur/ USD is 1.52. :)

Believe it or not!

2009-10-14T16:38:00.000-07:00

Have you got Plan B?

2009-10-14T14:30:00.000-07:00

You are predicting the downfall of the market from 1120? 1st it was 1014, then later 1068, then 1120. I see you are already mincing words about 1200.

I am talking about bearish blogs who were:

negative about the market even at $SPX 700
who never talk about long buys unless there is a big up day on which suddenly whoosh...you would have bought longs the day before
who have a dream scenario of the market going down from 1120 [like things happen the way you predict exactly]
long in your 401k [how on earth were you long on 401k when you are pumping bears everyday - you don't answer such questions....]

May be you will, may be right this time. A broken clock can be right once after all. If $SPX goes down, no doubt you will take ALL credit.

But why do you think this market will stop at 1120? If not, do you have plan B?

FCX

2009-10-08T14:23:00.000-07:00

FCX broke out on nice volume. If you think there is more to this bull run, buy FCX. MACD on the daily is crossing and the next [fib] line of resistance is at 83$. If you want to trade light, buy FCX Nov. 09 75$ calls. Stop at 70$ i.e. 50% retracement.

:)

It is true until it is broke

2009-10-08T13:56:00.000-07:00

I will be tracking USO daily until the pattern breaks out one way or the other. Check the RSI - though the overall stock market spent the last few months in a bull market, the crude oil is in a bear market.

RIMM

2009-10-08T11:59:00.000-07:00

Long RIMM @67.9; Stop @ 66$

The power of trendlines

2009-10-06T14:32:00.001-07:00

There are no Elliot waves; there are no complicated cycles; no fibs either. Simple trendlines. The trendlines survive a full day. Nobody knows what happens tomorrow. Since the EIA report comes tomorrow morning, it should decide the direction of USO.

That's what happens if your trendlines are correct and valid. Check my post from yesterday and check the following charts:

Now, what happens if the trendlines are wrong. Lol, you didn't expect this, did ya?

Now the neutral trade. I don't think I know where this stock is going. Not confirmed yet. GS went up on more volume than yesterday but we need confirmation here. GS should close above the line this week.

Gold also went up on higher volume. Gold may go up but when it crashes it will fall like hell. If it goes to 1200$, I am buying 800$ puts like crazy.

Short IBN

2009-10-06T07:52:00.000-07:00

There is a divergence in volume. When there is no confirmation from volume, all you do is go short. Target is 34$. Have patience, please place a stop @ $44.

NASDAQ and other charts....

2009-10-05T20:35:00.000-07:00

The last chart in this post is the most interesting one. Thanks. :)

I was infected with H1N1 flu and then recovering from the complications. So, excuse me for not updating the blog for several days.

I am posting some charts worth noting albeit details. I will definitely reply if you have questions though.

Look for breakouts

2009-09-25T04:06:00.000-07:00

Please check my previous post 1 , post2 , post3 before you proceed. XLF did trick you, didn't it? It is always important to check the underlying stocks before you jump on the trade. Even now, I want you to continue to watch. There is no confirmation of a breakdown. If XLF trades above that @ 14.9, it means you are on the watch again. Again, I am guessing the breakdown [if there is one] may not happen until after the Treasury auction on 29th. The market is oversold in the 1 hour timeframe. But, there should be resistance against the market at the @ $SPX 1055 level.

That move above the wedge on $RIFIN proved to be a fakeout as I said in my previous post.

But, If XLF goes below 14.7, SKF should probably breakout. Look for signals from FullStoch and MACD too.

If you checked my previous post on $WTIC, you can firmly say the oil chart broke to the downside. A break below 65$/ bbl, open a short position in DUG and close the short around the @ 60$/ bbl. Also, look for the breakout on DUG.

If XLF and $WTIC retraces above the resistance lines, we will assess the situation again.

p.s: RIMM posted a lower than estimated results and broke down by 13% in the extended trading. We expected RIMM to break down in my previous post. But, it doesn't mean you have to take every trade you see. Sometimes, you can sit on the sidelines too. :)

Gap fill...now what?

2009-09-23T18:03:00.001-07:00

Do you believe in gap fills? Now, after reading this post, I reckon you must!

SPY filled the gap [marked in yellow] that was formed last october. Guess what? 108.03, today's highest tick on SPY is also the 50% retracement fib level of the high in 07 and low in 09 [not sure why TOS is showing 2008 as low of 65.73???, ignore that date on the diagram above]. Classic! Now what happens? I expect SPY try to make another attempt to crawl above that line after few days and fail. If doesn't attempt, then bulls can call a goodbye to the bull market. If bulls cross that line, confirm it is a bull market.

Let's check RIMM for another classic example of gap fill.

RIMM filled the gap, actually in 2 attempts. The previous attempt was a failure. Lol. RIMM reports tomorrow after close of bell. I am bearish on RIMM after gapfill. But, if RIMM goes above the gapfill, it should be a strong support there.

I usually don't play earnings and I don't advise that anyone should play. This is not lottery guys. GLTA! Comments welcome as always. :)